Abstract

Background:

The Polaris Observatory maintains mathematical models for hepatitis B (HBV) and hepatitis C (HCV) viruses which are updated annually and used to monitor progress towards elimination. The outcomes of this work, including country/territory progress reports, are publicly available online. The objective of this analysis was to evaluate preliminary data retrieved in 2022 (for calendar years 2020 and 2021) to assess progress towards elimination and to report on updated policy assessment surveys.

Methods:

The year of elimination (by target) was extracted from 110 HCV and 166 HBV models available on the CDA Foundation’s website (data from 2020/2021). Results were summarized across countries by disease area and time period of elimination (target achieved before 2030, target achieved between 2031 and 2050, target achieved after 2050). Additionally, average country-level results from a qualitative policy assessment survey (administered in 2022 by the CDA Foundation) were used to score national viral hepatitis elimination policies.

Results:

As of May 10, 2022, policy surveys were returned by experts representing more than 30 countries (32 countries for HBV, 35 for HCV). Surveys scoring HBV programs, found 10 countries (31%) received the highest scores of 9 or 10 for political will (“Government is fully committed to the elimination in any population who tests positive for the virus”), and 16 (50%) received highest scores for financing the national program. Surveys scoring the HCV program found 13 countries (37%) received a score of 9 or 10 for political will, but only 15 countries (44%) received the highest scores for financing the national program.

Fourteen countries were on track to achieve all absolute or relative targets for HCV by 2030, with another 20 countries expected to achieve the targets by 2050. No countries were on track to achieve all absolute or relative targets for HBV by 2030 and only the Netherlands was expected to achieve all targets by 2050. More than 80 countries were on track to achieve the HBsAg prevalence target for children ≤5 years of age by 2050, and another 40 countries would achieve this target by 2050.

Conclusion:

As countries progress toward eliminating HCV, more work is needed to enhance political will and financing of national elimination programs. Vaccination campaigns for HBV have been successful in reducing HBV prevalence among children, but little progress has been made toward achieving other HBV elimination targets.